How Kamala Harris Could Beat Donald Trump in North Carolina

With the 2024 election fast approaching, all eyes are on the swing states, which are shaping up to be tight races.
One of the closest races, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, is North Carolina, where Vice President Kamala Harris briefly overtook Donald Trump last week before the former president retook the lead. He is now 0.4 points ahead of Harris in the state, 45.9 percent to her 45.6 percent.
North Carolina, which Trump won in 2020 and 2016, is also the third most likely state to be the tipping point state in the November election, with a 10.7 percent chance of giving the Electoral College winner their 270th vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.
However, the polls have fluctuated in the Tar Heel State, with some showing Harris with a lead, including the Cook Political Report, which moved North Carolina from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” after Harris wiped out Trump’s 8-point lead in a survey released on August 14, leading him by 2 points.
However, other recent polls have shown Trump in the lead, including the most recent Emerson College and Fox News polls, which showed him with a 1-point lead. In both polls, Trump’s lead was within the margin of error.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model projects that the Republicans will win the state by a 0.6-point margin.
Amid Trump’s lead and North Carolina’s status as an important battleground state, the Harris campaign is targeting the state, with Harris stopping in Raleigh earlier this month to discuss her plans to bolster the economy and prevent price gouging.
However, experts have told Newsweek that Harris needs to do more to win the state.
Asher Hildebrand, professor of Public Policy at Duke University in North Carolina, told Newsweek that Harris should focus on targeting rural areas in the state to regain victory over Trump.
“The demographic trends that helped carry Barack Obama to victory in 2008 have not changed all that much. With each election, North Carolina is becoming more populous, more diverse, and better educated. But unlike other ‘Sun Belt’ states, where growth has been concentrated in a single metro area such as Atlanta or Las Vegas, North Carolina’s growth has been more dispersed and more politically balanced,” Hildebrand said.
“Cities such as Raleigh and Charlotte have become Democratic strongholds, but many of the state’s fastest-growing areas (e.g., Johnston, Union, and Brunswick) have been reliably Republican.
“This means that to win statewide, Harris must do more than ‘run up the score’ in the cities and suburbs. She must also limit her losses in exurban and rural areas by attracting Trump-skeptical independents and Republicans to her coalition,” he said.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.
In Emerson College’s most recent poll, published on August 29, Harris led with independent voters by 2 points in North Carolina. Meanwhile, according to Cook Political Report’s most recent survey, Harris has increased her margins with independent voters by 13 points in the state.
Although Harris may have a lead among independents in the state, Hildebrand says she needs to appeal to them on the economy and reproductive rights to win them over.
“The economy is top of mind for voters, and Harris has some work to do to persuade voters she feels their malaise; it’s no surprise she chose to unveil her economic agenda in Raleigh. Like many states, reproductive freedom is another powerful issue for many voters—especially since the state legislature enacted a stricter abortion ban last year—and will be key to Harris’s inroads with independents and Trump-skeptical Republicans,” he said.
David McLennan, a professor of Political Science at Meredith College, told Newsweek that abortion may be the key to winning over swing voters.
“Suburban women in counties just outside Raleigh and Charlotte tend to be swing voters. The issue of abortion may be key to how they vote,” McLennan said.
He added that Harris also needs to work to attract young and Hispanic voters.
“The Harris campaign needs to improve Democratic turnout among young voters in places like the Raleigh-Durham area that is filled with college students,” McLennan said.
“The Hispanic voters in the state—just over 309,000 voters identify as Hispanic—could also swing a close race. The issue of immigration may be key to how they vote. These tend to be socially conservative voters who could split their vote between Harris and Trump.”
In the most recent SurveyUSA poll, conducted between August 19 and 21, Trump was leading Harris among 18 to 34-year-olds and Hispanics in North Carolina—two groups she leads nationally.
The poll of 1,053 likely voters showed she was tailing her opponent on 38 percent to his 53 percent among the youngest voters and 36 percent to Trump’s 61 percent among Hispanics.
In light of recent polling figures, McLennan believes that Trump will ultimately carry the state in November.
“Although Harris has the momentum in late August, I would say that Trump may be a slight favorite to carry the state. Republican turnout has been stronger than Democratic turnout in recent presidential elections,” he told Newsweek.
He thinks there is still hope for Harris, though.
“That being said, the Harris campaign is far better organized in North Carolina than either the Clinton or Biden campaigns were in their respective elections. If the Democratic ground game matches the number of field offices and volunteers in North Carolina, it would be no surprise if Harris would be the first Democrat since Obama in 2008 to carry the state,” McLennan said.
If Harris wins North Carolina, she would be the first Democrat to win the state since Barack Obama in 2008.